NEW BLOG / NUEVO BLOG

 

From now on, i will be posting on my new blog

www.swelltrader.blogspot.com

 

There will be no more posts here.

 

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A partir de este momento, estaré publicando en mi nuevo blog

www.swelltrader.blogspot.com

 

No habrá mas publicaciones en este blog.

 

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NZDUSD Bearish Head and Shoulders

A very nice and clear Head and Shoulders, with all the “textbook” elements can be seen in this pair.

As we can see, the precedent Bearish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern is very clear and confirmed by price action after 0.5787 high. Also the Double top almost occurred at this level confirms the presence of a H&S pattern.

I expect price to go begin drop at 0.5664 – 0.5716 area, to conform the right shoulder of the pattern.

Even though the potential of the pattern is around 220 pips, this reversing point can move price 500 pips down to 0.5100 level and after that (deeper), can signifies the weekly bearish trend resuming after a 924 pips pullback from 0.4890.

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USDCOP, seguimiento a la corrección

Aparentemente la ruptura de la línea de tendencia que esperábamos fuera confirmada con un “retest” de la misma, no se dio esta vez.

Sin embargo, sigo considerando que la caída desde 2.608 es, por ahora, un movimiento correctivo que aparentemente ha terminado el desarrollo de su segmento A en el nivel de 2.320.01. Actualmente estaríamos moviéndonos en el segmento B.

La proyección del desarrollo del patrón se puede ver claramente en la grafica.

Es importante resaltar que este segmento B, que implica fortaleza en el dólar contra el peso, coincide con la fortaleza del dólar en los mercados mundiales, producto de la corrección después del debilitamiento experimentado entre el 6 y el 19 de Marzo.

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CITI, otra posibilidad

Es importante considerar que CITI podría estar desarrollando un patrón Armónico tipo Gartley, lo cual se vería confirmado si el precio no logra superar los máximos anteriores y, por el contrario, experimente un mínimo menor a 2.38.

Dicho patrón, si bien implicaría volver a niveles no deseados entre 2.12 a 1.79, contribuiría a la tesis de que el precio de esta acción se esta empezando a mover técnicamente.

Posteriormente al desarrollo de este patrón, la acción retomaría su camino al alza.

desde el punto de vista de Elliott Wave Theory, un mínimo mayor en el nivel de 2.12 a 1.79 seria la definición de una onda 2

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CITI, ¿empieza a moverse técnicamente?

Se empiezan a identificar movimientos técnicos en esta acción.

Lo primero que podemos ver es el establecimiento de una tendencia alcista en la franja de 1 hora., tal y como lo muestran los promedios móviles de 35, 50 y 100 períodos, todos apuntando en el mismo sentido y paralelos.

Como confirmación de lo anterior, podemos ver que el precio ha respetado el “Área Dinámica de Reacción”, comprendida entre los promedios móviles de 30 y 50. Esta área se debe comportar como una barrera en la que el precio debe rebotar cuando se trata de tendencias “sanas” (ver recuadros verdes).

Por otro lado, es importante resaltar que el precio esta intentando romper una línea de tendencia bajista importante (Ver recuadros rojos).

La entrada en el canal del 38.2% FibFan que nos debe llevar por lo menos a niveles de 4.3/5.0, se vio ralentizada por el ultimo intento fallido por romper dicha línea de tendencia.

Rota la línea de tendencia, podremos esperar máximos mayores con mas facilidad.

USDCOP, Confirmando Bearish Breakout

La línea de tendencia alcista ha sido violada y actualmente el precio esta confirmando dicha violación volviendo a tocarla (retest). Se espera que una vez hecho esto el precio siga bajando para lograr un nuevo mínimo que confirmaría un cambio de tendencia, esta vez, a la baja.

Los objetivos se mantienen tal y como se planteo en un post anterior: 2.238 , 2.124  y 2.009 .

Ver http://gustavoforex.blogspot.com/2009/03/usdcop-correccion-la-vista.html

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EURAUD, Triangle break approaching

 

Weekly

The pair is trending bullish and consolidating in a big triangle. MA´s almost reached.

Daily

Bullish daily breakout expected.

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USDCOP, hoy puede ser un día movido

La decisión anunciada ayer por la FOMC de comprar bonos del tesoro a largo plazo y activos tóxicos del mercado de hipotecas, generó un debilitamiento inmediato – esperado pero no tan rápido – del dólar contra todas las divisas.

Hasta ayer, el forecast de la semana pasada ha venido desarrollándose de acuerdo a lo esperado.

Proyectado

Actualización

El movimiento de hoy podría ser acelerado a la baja como consecuencia de lo dicho anteriormente.

Para detalles del anterior forecast, ver:

http://gustavoforex.blogspot.com/2009/03/usdcop-correccion-la-vista.html 

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USDCAD Bearish H&S unfolded

This forecast was done on march 10, 2009. See it at: http://gustavoforex.blogspot.com/2009/03/usdcad-bearish-scenario-h-in-h1.html

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USDCAD, 15 min H&S

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EURUSD, Bullish Gartley

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AUDJPY Follow up

After the rectangle break, the Bearish Trend line is expected. Wait for a break and retest of it.

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GBPUSD follow up

The pair unfolded the Bullish Gartley that we forecasted for the last week.

After that, an inverted Head & Shoulder was developed and unfolded.

Now, price is challenging the bearish trend line within a bullish channel.

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EURUSD Follow up

Pair is finding resistance at 38.2 fibfan of the last bearish swing. Wait for break of it.

USDJPY follow up

Daily

The pair is finding strong resistance at this level, due mainly to the 61.8% and 38.2  fibfans of the two previous bearish swings and to a previous Support and resistance level. Could be the bullish flag end.

1 Hour

Last week i was talking about to trade in two stages like the chart shows.

The price moved down and pullback for retest, but is still up. This week, a bearish break of the bullish pullback can be a good entry.

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GBPUSD, pick the bus

After the lost H&S entry, i think this one could be a good one.

Note that price is finding support in a previous high @ 2009.03.13, 1.4066. Also, this level corresponds to 50% fib ret and 61.8 fibfan of the previous swing in 1 hour time frame. additionally, is retesting broken bearish trend line.

First target is set to the touch of the 38.2 fibfan level.

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USDCOP, corrección a la vista

Es claro que el movimiento alcista desde el nivel de 1.600 esta compuesto por 5 ondas impulsivas. El movimiento bajista de esta semana puede ser el inicio de la corrección correspondiente al movimiento anteriormente mencionado.

Sin embargo, dicha corrección solo será confirmada con el rompimiento de la línea de tendencia alcista y el ingreso a los fibfans trazados entre 1.638 (mínimo) y 2.610 (máximo).

Si se confirma la corrección, las tres ondas correctivas podrían desenvolverse de la manera planteada en la grafica, teniendo en cuenta que el precio podría encontrar soporte en el limite del fan 38.2% y retroceder a confirmar el rompimiento de la línea de tendencia.

De todas formas, es importante transar en función de los siguientes niveles Fibonacci : 2.238 (38.2%), 2.124 (50%) y 2.009 (61.8%). 

 

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USDCAD Bearish scenario, H&S in H1

As an alternative scenario, and due to the failed break of the 1.3000 level, this Head and Shoulder pattern in the making could an entry signal for shorts.

Week from March 8th to 13th Forecast

USDJPY

Weekly

Here we have a well established bearish trend, with price now visiting the Moving Averages area, coinciding exactly with the 98.55 level which is a previous support level that could be now acting as resistance. Additionally, price is at 50% fib Retracement of the swing from 110.65 to 87.16. Even thought, the fact that price made double bottom at 87.16, could be a signal of trend finishing. Weekly break of the weekly bearish trend line will favor longs.

Daily

Since the main trend is bearish, the actual pullback must be broken to the downside in order to enter short. Is important to note that, as per the bullish channel shows, is still more room to the pair to rise, maybe up to 61.8 % level @ 98.91.

4 Hours

The daily pullback can be clearly divided in 2 stages with the 4 hours timeframe. The bearish break and retest of the steeper channel will give us a approximately 200 pips trade. the second stage is after the lower TL break and retest. The use of Fib Fan ls can help to determine entry and targets levels.

EURUSD

Monthly

Is clear that the long rally from 200.10.22 @ 0.8434 to 2008.07.01 @ 1.6037 is over, since the correspondent uptrend line has been broken and retested, so we can be at a new bearish trend beginning in this timeframe.

Weekly

In this timeframe, moving averages are positioning for a new bearish trend. After the bullish pullback from 2008.10.26 @ 1.2313 to 2008.12.14 @ 1.4694, and, bear in mind that price is moving towards the previous low @ 1.2329, out of Fibfans, a clear break and retest of this last level would be a signal entry for shorts. Initial target will be at 1.1639 previous low.

Note that price is moving within a historical area of support/resistance (bold in yellow), which can lead to a longer time of consolidation before after the break.

Entry should be done in daily timeframe.

GBPUSD

Monthly

Price is at a major support level @ 1.4068 zone, which is working as it since the year of 1986.

Weekly

Moving averages are pointing down in a clear bearish trend scenario.

Daily

Here we find a Gartley Harmonic Pattern in process, now unfolding leg CD. If the resistance level mentioned before (1.4068) is break, we could see price dropping to a fibzone between 1.3824 and 1.367, and after that to the previous low @ 1.3502.

1 Hour

Because of the strong support level mentioned before (1.4068), a safe entry level would be after 1.3957 previous low break.

USDCHF

This pair is trending in 1 hour timeframe, now visiting 30 moving average. Is important to note that the actual bullish pullback is rising from a double bottom @ 1.1484 level.

An entry in 15 min timeframe could be possible when price break and retest previous low @ 1.1484. Another possibility is to entry at actual level, after the break of the previous low @ 1.1580, with a tight stop loss @ 1.1613 and looking for the bullish trend line as initial target and double bottom level as secondary target.

USDCAD

Weekly

Moving averages are preparing for showing a new bullish trend line in this time frame. 1.3000 round number is performing a good role as resistance, since has hold the up move for 4 times.

4 Hours

Coherently with the weekly scenario, moving averages in this timeframe are showing a bullish trend, with price visiting the moving averages area.

1 Hour

In this time frame, a bullish pennant is being unfolding. Bear in mind that many traders are waiting for 1.3000 level to be broke for jump to long trades, a very audacious entry could be done by buying at the bottom of this triangle, with a stop loss @ 1.2713, or @ 1.2763 if low risk is wanted. Targets should be, upper side of the triangle and 1.3000 level.

AUDUSD

Weekly

This pair is in a bearish trend, but now is consolidating, aiming towards moving averages area.

Daily

The mentioned consolidation is doing by a big daily triangle that could be reaching its break point. Since price is aiming towards MA`s area in weekly, this breakout could be a bullish one.

EURGBP

Monthly

A big bearish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern seems to be finished @ 0.9804, which is almost 127.2 Fib Ret of 1995.11.01 @ 0.9015 to 2000.05.01 @ 0.5680 swing.

Weekly

Price is pulling back bearish towards MA`s, within a bigger bullish trend, and has rejected from 38.2 Fib Fan level of the 5 waves swing from 2007.01.21 @ 0.6534 to 2008.12.28 @ 0.9802; actually this swing is CD leg of the monthly Butterfly.

Daily

The weekly bullish trend will be favored with a break and retest of the bearish pullback.

In the other side of the coin, a close below 38.2 Fibfan level will favor the monthly bearish butterfly scenario, and consequently, a change in the trend.

EURJPY

Weekly

Price is moving towards MA`s within a well established bearish trend.

Daily

In this time frame, price is moving in a range. Is advisable to wait for price to leave this range in order to execute any trades.

GBPJPY

Monthly

138.28 support level is making its job.

Weekly

Price is moving in a bullish pullback towards MA`s area, within a bigger bearish weekly trend.

Daily

The bullish weekly pullback has made double top @ 141.69 level, coinciding with 100 SMA. Price is being squeezed between double top / 100 SMA level and bullish trend line. More bullish moves expected.

CHFJPY

Weekly

Price is trending in this time frame, now reaching MA`s area, which can be sign of bouncing south.

Daily

A bearish break of actual pullback will be an entry signal, but i prefer to wait for 74.64 previous low break.

GBPCHF

This pair is trending in both, monthly and weekly time frames.

Weekly

Price is pulling back bullish towards MA`s area. Have to wait for that to happens, or for a clear break of previous low @ 1.5097.

EURAUD

Weekly

Price is trending bullish in this time frame, and MA`s area is almost reached.

Daily

The consolidation that bring price to the MA`s area was done thru a clearly defined triangle, in this case a symmetric one.

AUDJPY

Weekly

Is in a bearish trend, and price is moving towards MA´s area. This move towards is being made thru a flat bearish triangle clearly defined, that could be also a signal of trend change to a bullish one.

Daily

The fact that price went beyond 61.8 fibfan level of the swing from 2007.07.21 @ 104.45 to 2008.10.24 @ 55.06, can be a signal of a break to the upside.

4 Hours

In the meanwhile, and due to the upper side of the triangle acting as resistance and the clear bullish trend line of the actual pullback acting as bottom of a smaller triangle, a short term trade can be made, anticipating a possible bearish break of the bigger triangle, which is the move we should expect rather than the bullish scenario.